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Housing Shortage Looms 2020:HIA
Housing shortage looms in 2020: HIA Ainslie Chandler
Australia could be short of nearly 500,000 dwellings within 10 years, which would push up house prices and rents, if population growth and low construction levels continue, the Housing Industry Association has
forecast. And NSW is likely to bear the brunt of it because more than half a million dwellings will be needed in the state in the coming decade to meet demand. The national shortage, which now stands at 109,200 dwellings, will hit 466,000 in 2020 if trends continue, the HIA forecasts. To meet demand, 1.92 million dwellings will have to be built in the next 10 years, compared with 1.5 million developed in the past decade.
UBS expects dwelling starts to rise to 175,000 this year, from 138,000 in 2009, but fall to 160,000 in 2011 as higher prices and interest rates affect affordability. The end of the government's firstowner incentives and social housing initiatives is also expected to dampen activity. HIA senior economist Ben Phillips said the symptoms of the housing shortage were already being felt in higher rents and house prices. "I think we're starting to feel the pinch right about now," he said. "Over the course of last year, through what was effectively a global recession or downturn ... we still had house prices rise by 12, 13, 14 per cent, depending on who you talk to. "It does make you worry about what will happen in the future." The association's Housing to 2020 report names the City of Brisbane as the local government area with the greatest housing shortage, with 6474 too few dwellings in 2009, based on population growth and construction data. The City of Sydney follows, with a shortage of 5234. The nearby local government areas of Bankstown and Canterbury have shortfalls of 2285 and 2135, respectively, and Queensland's Beaudesert has 2227. The report names NSW as the state likely to have the biggest housing shortfall in 2020. A 232,600 shortfall is expected in NSW by 2020, based on an anticipated population of 10.2 million by 2056. To meet demand, 511,800 dwellings need to be built in NSW in the coming 10 years, about 111,000 more than were built in the past decade. The report projects that the strongest housing demand between 2011 and 2020 will be in the Queensland centres of the Gold Coast, Brisbane and Ipswich, followed by the Perth area of Wanneroo and Melbourne. We're starting to feel the pinch right about now.
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